Party interests rule bill deliberation

Party interests rule bill deliberation

National News - October 18, 2008

Abdul Khalik and Desy Nurhayati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Political parties' ambitions to cling to power and their attempts to improve on their bargaining position ahead of the 2009 elections have dominated and delayed the deliberation of the presidential election bill.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, through his ministers and his Democratic Party, has tried to keep the threshold -- the minimum percentage of House seats held by a party or coalition of parties to nominate their presidential candidate -- as low as possible.

With his only support coming from the Democratic Party, which garnered 8 percent of national votes, Yudhoyono needs to keep the threshold low to allow him to run for president again without needing to form a coalition.

Both Home Affairs Minister Mardiyanto and State Secretary Hatta Radjasa have said the government-proposed 15 percent threshold was an ideal choice because it would allow for more presidential candidates.

"The government is just being consistent. In 2004, we had a 3 percent threshold. That's why a 15 percent threshold is already a huge leap," Hatta said Friday.

Observers say the 15 percent threshold would also ensure the presence of at least four presidential candidates for the 2009 election, and make a runoff vote highly likely because no contender would get more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of polling.

Recent surveys suggest Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), could win the first round if it was contested by more than two candidates, while Yudhoyono would win a head-to-head against Megawati.

Analysts say this explains the PDI-P's push for a 26 to 30 percent threshold to allow for only three candidates to contest the election and thus hand Megawati a big chance of winning the presidency in one round.

Mahfudz Siddiq, head of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) faction at the House of Representatives, said his party's analysis suggested that even a 20 percent threshold would allow for only three candidates to run.

"Our party supports a single round of voting, to cut costs in this time of crisis. I think a 20 to 25 percent threshold will guarantee a one-round election, but we are still willing to set the threshold somewhere between 15 and 30 percent," he said.

The Golkar Party, the country's biggest, is also calling for a high threshold as it tries to improve on its own and Vice President Jusuf Kalla's bargaining position vis-a-vis the PDI-P and Yudhoyono. Golkar has reduced its initial proposal of a 30 percent threshold to 25 percent, and insists it will not go lower.

"We are ready to vote for that," Golkar secretary-general Sumarsono said.

Kalla, the Golkar chairman, earlier hinted at his willingness to run again with Yudhoyono. On Thursday, however, Kalla met with National Awakening Party (PKB) and PKS leaders to lobby for Golkar's 25 percent threshold proposal.

With a coalition likely between Golkar, the PDI-P, the PKB and the PKS, these parties could win an expected vote at a House plenary meeting next Wednesday to pass the presidential election bill.